Farmers desert Tories

Farmers are traditionally Conservative supporters, but a poll for Farmers Weekly shows that support has fallen to 57 per cent with farmers complaining that the Government does not understand their needs and problems.   The main beneficiaries are the Liberal Democrats, although only up to 17 per cent, admittedly more than their current national polling level: https://www.fwi.co.uk/news/farm-policy/farmer-support-for-conservatives-on-the-slide-fw-survey-reveals

Historically large scale farmers have been overwhelming Conservative supporters with some holding posts in their constituency associations.   Smaller scale farmers, particularly in remoter areas, have been more inclined to support the Liberal Democrats and the Nationalist parties.

Could this be a factor in the North Shropshire by-election?

New Zealand trade has more political significance

The trade deal with New Zealand concluded after 16 months of negotiations has more political than economic significance, showing that the UK can negotiate post Brexit trade deals quickly.  It is hoped that it will ‘pave the way’ for the UK to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

The deal envisages that tariff-free sheepmeat quotas will grow by 35,000t/year for the first four years (on top of the country’s existing 114,000t WTO quota) and then by 50,000t/year from year’s five to 15. This will give New Zealand a combined tariff-free access of up to 149,000t of sheepmeat in year one, rising to 164,000t in years five to 15 – quantities the country has failed to fulfil in recent times.

For beef, New Zealand currently has just 545t/year of duty-free access to the UK, but the planned deal will see this increase steadily to 38,820t by year 10, and 60,000t by year 15. 

The National Sheep Association argued that in addition to the increase in access by Australia, in just over a decade, these two countries will have access to the UK’s entire volume of lamb consumption.  Despite fears that the red meat market will be hit, Asian markets are a priority for Australia and New Zealand as they are closer and more profitable.

Farmers not ready for withdrawal of support

Some 36 per cent of farm income depends on the Basic Payment Scheme, but one in three farmers are yet to start preparing for its withdrawal according to a survey for Farmers Weekly.   79 per cent of farmers have no clear idea how their farm business will survive without it.   Lowland livestock enterprises are particularly reliant on the basic payment.

Just 15 per cent of farmers say they are interested in taking a lump sum to retire from farming.

53 per cent of farm businesses say they have already diversified.   Of these 51 per cent have a renewable energy scheme, including solar panels (76 per cent), biomass boilers (26 per cent), wind power (22 per cent) and anaerobic digestion (7 per cent).

The next most popular diversification is holiday accommodation (24 per cent), followed by offices and workspace (10 per cent), leisure activities (7 per cent) and farm shops, cafés and restaurants (5 per cent).

Principles that should underpin food policy

Tim Lang and colleagues from the Food Research Collaboration set out nine principles and tests to guide future food policy: https://foodresearch.org.uk/publications/testing-times-for-uk-food-policy-nine-principles-and-tests/

The National Food strategy will be published later this week, and beyond it a White Paper and potentially legislation to implement changes. The latest report from Professors Tim Lang, Erik Millstone and Terry Marsden sets the stage for these post-Brexit developments with nine Principles and Tests that civil society and the public can use to assess whether the important food policy developments that lie ahead serve the public and national interest. 

Helping older farmers retire

The Government's scheme to fund early retirement for farmers has had a mixed reception, although some farming organisations have given it a qualified welcome.   This extensive report includes a quote from me: https://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/19313523.cumbria-reacts-government-scheme-pay-older-farmers-retire/

Cabinet row over Australian trade deal

A battle royal is in progress in Cabinet on whether Britain should agree a tariff free trade deal with Australia.  Brexiteers think that if a trade deal cannot be concluded with Australia no deals will be possible for the new 'Global Britain'.

However, farmers - already reeling from the phasing out of support payments - are concerned that it could hit their markets and be a precedent for future deals, particularly those with the US and New Zealand.

On one side of the argument is international trade secretary Liz Truss.   On the other side is Defra secretary of state George Eustice, backed up by Michael Gove.   Gove is concerned that rural areas in Wales and Scotland would be hard hit, further undermining the union.   Reports are suggesting that Boris Johnson may come down in favour of the deal.

Beef and sheep meat would be the main commodities affected, although Australia is also interested in exporting more cheese.   There is a 20 per cent tariff on beef at present which would be phased out over 15 years.   

Australian farmers benefit from greater economies of scale, allowing them to undercut on price.  The writer well remembers visiting a huge drylot beef farm in New South Wales.

The RSPCA said Australia had lower standards on chlorinated chickens, sow stalls that confine pregnant pigs and growth hormone treatment for beef.

How farmers voted on Brexit

A lot of myths have grown up about how farmers voted in the referendum on leaving the EU.  Based on a self-selected Farmers Weekly survey, or simply on anecdotal evidence about posters on countryside hoardings, a view has developed that farmers voted overwhelmingly for Brexit.

Up to now we have lacked any hard evidence, but that has been rectified by a survey of farmers reported in the Journal of Rural Studies by Daniel May and his colleagues.

The headline finding is that farmer voting was not greatly out of line with the electorate as a whole.  50 per cent reported voting leave, 45 per cent remain and 5 per cent did not vote.  This implies a higher turnout than the population as a whole, although some who did not vote claim that they did in surveys.

There was a slight tendency for women farmers to be more likely to vote remain.  However, the strongest predictor of voting behaviour was level of education.  60 per cent of those with GCSE or equivalent voted to leave compared with 20 per cent of those with postgraduate education (admittedly a small N).

Dairy farmers voted leave by 58 per cent to 38 per cent and pig and poultry farmers had a 53 per cent to  34 per cent leave lead.  Pig and poultry farmers received relatively little from the CAP and dairy farmers may have seen themselves as tightly regulated by it.

There were some regional differences.   Farmers in Scotland deviated from the trend there with 67 per cent voting leave (51 per cent in Wales).  Farmers in the east and south of the country were more likely to vote remain, but in part this reflected national voting trends.

The 'bring back control' theme seems to have resonated with farmers in terms of their personal perceptions.   Farmers who state that they face too many restrictions imposed by the EU including those on agrochemicals were more likely to vote leave.   For some EU regulations were seen as preventing them making higher profits or having more market power.   Voting for Brexit is perceived as delivering more control over their businesses.