How farmers voted on Brexit

A lot of myths have grown up about how farmers voted in the referendum on leaving the EU.  Based on a self-selected Farmers Weekly survey, or simply on anecdotal evidence about posters on countryside hoardings, a view has developed that farmers voted overwhelmingly for Brexit.

Up to now we have lacked any hard evidence, but that has been rectified by a survey of farmers reported in the Journal of Rural Studies by Daniel May and his colleagues.

The headline finding is that farmer voting was not greatly out of line with the electorate as a whole.  50 per cent reported voting leave, 45 per cent remain and 5 per cent did not vote.  This implies a higher turnout than the population as a whole, although some who did not vote claim that they did in surveys.

There was a slight tendency for women farmers to be more likely to vote remain.  However, the strongest predictor of voting behaviour was level of education.  60 per cent of those with GCSE or equivalent voted to leave compared with 20 per cent of those with postgraduate education (admittedly a small N).

Dairy farmers voted leave by 58 per cent to 38 per cent and pig and poultry farmers had a 53 per cent to  34 per cent leave lead.  Pig and poultry farmers received relatively little from the CAP and dairy farmers may have seen themselves as tightly regulated by it.

There were some regional differences.   Farmers in Scotland deviated from the trend there with 67 per cent voting leave (51 per cent in Wales).  Farmers in the east and south of the country were more likely to vote remain, but in part this reflected national voting trends.

The 'bring back control' theme seems to have resonated with farmers in terms of their personal perceptions.   Farmers who state that they face too many restrictions imposed by the EU including those on agrochemicals were more likely to vote leave.   For some EU regulations were seen as preventing them making higher profits or having more market power.   Voting for Brexit is perceived as delivering more control over their businesses.