This is a slightly updated version of an article published in South East Farmer:
What will the Biden presidency mean for the trade deal with
the United States, particularly in relation to agriculture?
One thing that is clear is that it will not proceed as quickly as it
would have done in the absence of a change of administration.
There are a number of reasons why this is the case. First, Joe Biden has made it clear that the emphasis in the early phase of his presidency will be on domestic issues, specifically the Covid-19 pandemic. One key international priority will be climate change. International trade be less of a priority.
Second, a new administration
means a change of personnel. A new US
Trade Representative will need to be appointed to run what is in effect the
US’s Department of International Trade and that will take at least two months
after the inauguration. Once that
person has been approved by the Senate, they will need to work out their
strategy. Trade relations with China
will be an early focus.
It is the case that there have been quite detailed technical negotiations between the UK and the US and it is understood that draft chapters of a potential agreement have been mapped out. However, the issues have always been political rather than technical. If there is political agreement, the legal language to fulfil it can be provided.
The biggest obstacle here was the effect of
Brexit on the Good Friday agreement, about which Joe Biden has expressed
concern. Not all issues in relation to Northern Ireland have been resolved by an means, to put it mildly. Biden identifies strongly with
his Irish heritage. Asked a question by
a BBC reporter, he replied: ‘BBC? I’m
Irish.’ Ireland is also a concern for
the House of Representatives which would have to approve any agreement and
which still has a Democrat majority.
It is unlikely that a UK–US deal will be reached before the
president’s 'fast track' authority to sign trade deals (formally Trade
Promotion Authority, TPA) expires on 1 July 2021. Its absence makes the
congressional approval procedure much longer and more troublesome. Biden may
find that he has more important things on which to use his limited capital with
Congress than trying to renew TPA.
Even if an agreement was reached, there is no reason to
suppose that it would be any more favourable to UK agriculture than one reached
under President Trump. Nick Clegg
claims that Joe Biden said to him ‘very unsentimentally – in that folksy way he
does – “‘We are not going to sign anything that the chicken farmers of Delaware
don’t like!”’ Delaware is one of the
largest chicken producing states in the US and the product is washed with
chlorine.
Joe Biden’s personal links with chicken farmers aside, there are more fundamental reasons why any agreement is likely to favour US agricultural interests. Unlike the UK, where Defra has a multitude of tasks and does not necessarily treat farming as a priority, the US Department of Agriculture is a powerful department with a focus on farming that has the lead on the agricultural dimension of trade negotiations.
Tom Vilsack has proved a controversial choice as nominee for Agriculture Secretary, being seen as too corporate and unacceptable to key Biden support bases: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/21/joe-biden-tom-vilsack-agriculture-secretary
Whoever gets the job will be
backed up by the agriculture committees in each house of the Congress that
usually have a preponderance of members from areas that have significant
agricultural businesses, while the agribusiness lobby remains strong. In summary, any agreement that is reached
will reflect US agricultural interests, particularly given the willingness of
the UK to make sacrifices on agriculture to make gains elsewhere.
As far as Brexit more generally is considered, Biden has made it clear that he thinks it was an historic mistake and he would have voted against it if he could have done. There is wider disappointment in the US because the UK could be relied upon to bring a perspective to EU discussions that took account of American viewpoints. However, that is largely water under the bridge for now.
