Dairy sector also faces Brexit challenges

Much of the discussion of the impact of Brexit on agriculture has focused for understandable reasons on the livestock sector, particularly sheep farming. However, the dairy sector also faces challenges.

Rising production and static demand is currently creating an over supply problem in the liquid market. Muller has blamed its recent price cut to farmers on a 37 per cent reduction in the cream price.

Cross-border cream sales have been relieving pressure on the liquid market, but would face a tariff of £972/t in the event of a no deal exit, ruling out export sales.

Kite Consulting, a leading dairy consultancy, are advising farmers to ensure that feed stores are full on October 31st to lock in prices. That should include minerals and fats that come in by EU trades. They should also hold back on investing in new machinery until after Christmas: Kite's advice

Farmers fury over cull cancellation

Farmers are angry about the cancellation of a proposed badger cull in Derbyshire days before it was due to go ahead. The Government has given the green light to culls in 11 other new areas.

A cull has never been cancelled so close to the time it was due to go ahead. The decision was taken by Defra secretary of state Theresa Villiers on the grounds that badgers are being vaccinated against bovine TB in Derbyshire.

However, some see the hand of Boris Johnson's partner, Carrie Symonds, in the decision. Dominic Dyer, the chief executive of the Badger Trust, met her in Downing Street last month. She has helped him carry a banner when out campaigning against the cull. Mr Dyer wrote to Boris Johnson about the cull and three days later it was called off.

Farmers back no deal Brexit

A surprising number of farmers back a no deal Brexit given that many of them would suffer financially as a result. At least that is the case if one believes polls from Farmers Weekly. A health warning is always necessary about these polls as respondents select themselves and the Ns are often small. A poll which purported to show that a majority of farmers backed Brexit in the referendum has nevertheless embedded itself in the public mind.

43 per cent of 'about 300' farmers said they would be happy with a no deal Brexit while 57 per cent said they would not. Concern about leaving without a deal was strongest in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Yorkshire and Humberside. Optimism about farm business prospects is at its lowest level since the survey started a year ago.

A snapshot 24 hour poll found that 53 per cent would choose to leave the EU with no deal if they could vote again. 38 per cent said they would vote remain and just 9 per cent said they would back the withdrawal agreement backed by Theresa May.

It is interesting that the first poll is below a story about the impact of a no deal Brexit on the sheepmeat sector. About one-third of the UK's production of lamb is exported and 95 per cent of this goes to the EU. 40 per cent tariffs and regulatory barriers would almost wipe out exports.

The Government has ruled out culling as a response to such a crisis. It looks as if they favour a combination of a headage payment on breeding ewes and a slaughterhouse premium. The UK breeding flock already reduced by about 30 per cent in the 2017-18 breeding season as farmers responded to an uncertain future.

Mike Gooding, director of Farmers' First, one of Britain's biggest lamb exporters, told Farmers Weekly: 'Essentially, Brexit risks excluding UK produce from the EU market. A no-deal Brexit would result in the same outcome - but with that risk greatly increased.'

He predicted a substantial fall in sheep farming in the UK. 'My own personal view is that there will be far fewer farmers managing what sheep there are in larger flocks - possibly across multiple holdings.'

What chances of a green agricultural policy?

In the latest issue of Euro Choices Viviane Gravey asks whether Brexit will lead to a green agricultural policy. She notes, 'while UK governments have pioneered and pushed for many green instruments in the CAP, their overarching priority remained to limit funding – both EU and national – for agriculture.' Moreover, the four nations of the UK have developed divergent policies under the flexible umbrella of the 2014-20 CAP.'

She points out that 'the UK's long‐standing reluctance to increase EU‐related spending has repeatedly constrained the UK's commitment to agri‐environment schemes.'

She concludes, 'while the UK government's current commitment to "put the environment first" calls for radical post‐Brexit change, the policy‐making process does not augur well for such change. Instead, it bears sharp similarities to CAP debates old and new. Within the EU, the UK's commitment to greening agriculture was repeatedly undermined by its opposition to increased spending for CAP and its growing euroscepticism.'

'Outside of the EU, the UK's renewed commitment to greening agriculture risks faltering once more due to broader national and international political tensions. These difficulties are linked to fraught power sharing under devolution, the challenges of guaranteeing a shared environmental baseline across the UK, and agreeing a fair budget for agriculture policy throughout the four nations, as well as the uncertain contour of any UK‐EU deal and future UK trade policy.'