Quarter of farmers say they will not vote

Almost one in four farmers say they will not vote at the next general election according to a Farmers Weekly survey. (N stated as 600+).

42 per cent would vote Conservative, down from 39 per cent last year with 10 per cent voting Liberal Democrat and 7 per cent Labour.  'Others' account for 20 per cent.   This is a disappointing figure for the Liberal Democrats given their hopes of making progress in rural seats.

Support for the Conservatives was strongest in south-east England (49 per cent) and Yorkshire (47 per cent).  Support was stronger among larger farmers with 51 per cent of those farming more than 500 hectares saying they would vote Conservative.

21 per cent in Scotland and 29 per cent in Wales would vote Conservative.   In Scotland Labour was the most popular party with the Scottish Nationalists in third place with nine per cent.

The NFU have just demanded that the farm budget be expanded from £2.4bn to £4bn, something that either leading party is unlikely to be able to afford given the fiscal outlook.

Farm chief slams post-Brexit subsidy regime

The post-Brexit farming subsidy scheme in England has failed to improve on the old EU system and large landowners are still benefiting disproportionately, according to the president of the National Farmers Union. In an interview with the Financial Times, Minette Batters, who is due to step down as president of the NFU in February, slammed post-Brexit agricultural policy, which has been overseen by seven different environment secretaries since the UK voted to leave the EU in 2016. 

One of the biggest criticisms of the EU subsidy scheme run as part of the Common Agricultural Policy was that it unfairly benefited large landowners. Brexit was seen as an opportunity for the payment system to be overhauled. But the replacements in England, the Environmental Land Management schemes (ELMs), have been slow to be implemented and criticised for placing too much emphasis on the environment at the expense of food production. “The focus at the moment is on growing a crop for the environment and not producing food . . . I think that’s going to be really hard with the cost of living crisis,” said Batters, adding that consumers cared more than ever about food security.   [Not sure about the evidence for that claim].

She went on to criticise the government for failing to build a more equitable system. “Large landowners effectively living off the state is not going to wash going forward,” said Batters.  While the new scheme differs from the EU system in that funding is awarded in exchange for environmental actions — “public money for public goods” — the system is still area based. Access to land is a pre-requisite to access the scheme and the more land a farmer has the more funds they will be able to secure. 

The phaseout of the EU Basic Payment Scheme has left many farmers who were reliant on the subsidies with lower payments than they had previously. Meanwhile, take up of the flagship payment under ELMs — the Sustainable Farming Incentive — has been low, with only a fraction of the 82,000 farmers who are eligible having signed up.

UK was a voice for animal welfare in the EU

The UK was one of the strongest advocates of animal welfare measures and its voice is no longer heard in the EU, changing the political calculus.

The EU is considering scrapping plans to impose regulations designed to improve animal welfare in the farming industry over concerns about the impact it could have on food inflation, according to senior officials.

The European Commission had promised to act after public pressure to stop practices such as the use of cages for livestock, the killing of day-old chicks, and the sale and production of fur. But concerns that the proposed changes could add to food costs, which rose sharply after Russia invaded Ukraine last year, have led Brussels to reconsider the plans.

Three EU officials with knowledge of the matter told the Financial Times that the Commission had dropped the proposals completely — along with a sustainable food law designed to boost green food production across the bloc. But another official said it was reviewing the animal welfare plan and would propose a scaled-back version.   This sounds like a trial balloon to judge reactions.

“Some in the commission are worried about the cost,” said Joe Moran, director of European policy for Four Paws, an animal welfare campaign group. The legislation is among the few remaining parts of the EU’s Green Deal climate package, laid out in 2019 to pivot the bloc to a more sustainable economy. But ahead of EU-wide elections in 2024, conservative politicians have pushed back against the environmental regulations.

Typically, the reaction of farm organisations is to call for more subsidies.  Pekka Pesonen, secretary-general of Copa-Cogeca, the EU farmer’s group, told the FT it could support many of the changes as long as they received financial aid to implement them, and if imported meat was subject to the same standards. That would in effect ban many imports from trading partners such as Brazil, Ukraine and Thailand. Such a measure would also be opposed by trade commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis.

Farmers find life without subsidies difficult

Farmers, particularly those in England, are find it difficult to adjust to life with reducing subsidies.  

A Farmers Weekly of 500 farmers survey showed farmers across the UK continue to rely heavily on support scheme money, with almost 90% receiving some funding.

On average, BPS revenue accounted for 29.3% of farm incomes in the 12 months up to spring 2023, only slightly down on the 31.7% recorded for the same period a year earlier.   For more than two in five (41%), BPS money made up one-quarter of incomes.  But for 16%, BPS funding still accounted for three-quarters or more of total revenue, a slight increase on the figure for spring 2022 when it stood at 14%.  

Dwindling support levels continue to cause widespread concern.  A growing number of farmers (49% – up from 45% last year) are now “very concerned” about how they will replace lost revenue from support.

Overall, eight out of 10 farmers registered some level of concern.  Concerns ran so deeply that 87.5% said they were uncertain whether their farms would even survive without BPS support.  More than half (55%) forecast it would be difficult to survive and one-quarter went further, saying survival would only be secured with great difficulty.

More than one-third (37%) are looking to an off-farm revenue to bolster incomes.  Almost two-thirds already have a source of off-farm income, with 22% in outside employment while 19% own another business and 15% hold investments unrelated to agriculture.

Regrets? I have a few.

The voting behaviour of UK farmers in the Brexit referendum mirrored that of the population as a whole, but quite a few are now regretting their choice according to a Farmers' Weekly survey of 950 farmers and those in ancillary industries. 

Three-quarters of respondents said that Brexit had been negative for the UK economy and 69 per cent said that it had been very or fairly negative for their own businesses.   If the vote could be held again, there would be an eight per cent swing from leave to remain.   65 per cent said that it made it less likely they would vote Conservative.

Both arable and livestock farmers seemed equally disappointed   Even more negative were those growing vegetables (81 per cent) or keeping pigs  (79 per cent).

A clear majority said that despite pre-Brexit promises of 'a bonfire of red tape' once Britain left the EU, the reverse had been true.   My talks to farmers around the north of England convinced me that some had a very surprising view of the regulations that could be discarded.

The phasing out of the Basic Payment Scheme in England attracted a lot of criticism, it being claimed that farming could not survive without support.    Arguably this shows an industry that had become too reliant on subsidies not tied to outcomes.

Two-thirds of those surveyed thought that the UK was better off when the EU devised policy, ironically a view strongest among those growing non-supported crops such as potatoes, sugar beet and fruit.

Rural voters move away from Conservatives

Never mind the blue wall and the red wall.  Is the Conservative 'green wall' collapsing?

A survey of over 1,000 in England's 100 most rural constituencies for the Country Land and Business Association revealed a 18 per cent swing away from the Conservatives and a 16 per cent boost for Labour compared with the 2019 general election.   The Liberal Democrats won just 13 per cent of the support of those polled.

If replicated in 2024 20 of the most 96 rural seats held by the Conservatives would change hands.    Among the most vulnerable are Defra farming minister Mark Spencer (Sherwood); Jacob Rees-Mogg (North East Somerset); Liam Fox (North Somerset); and Jeremy Hunt (South West Surrey).

More here: https://www.cla.org.uk/news/rural-wall-collapsing-as-conservative-support-in-rural-england-falls-by-18-points/

How has UK agricultural policy changed since Brexit?

Some thoughts here: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2023/05/24/how-has-uk-agricultural-policy-changed-since-brexit/

Farm policies a Brexit success?

Responding to Nigel Farage, Downing Street yesterday said that Brexit has been a success, citing the ability of the UK to shape its own farm policies as a benefit.

Really?  A hollowed out Defra has found this a challenging task.   The new policies have been rolled out slowly.  The ELMS scheme is complicated and the relationship between policy instruments and desired outcomes is uncertain, albeit that is not an unfamiliar problem.  Measures to tackle the farm productivity problem are limited in scope and funding.

Downing Street also held its much vaunted food summit yesterday.   The farming press dismissed it as a 'talking shop' and admittedly my heart sinks when I hear the phrase 'breakout groups'.  All too often this means poorly focused discussions and brief feedbacks lacking clarity.   However, one needs to talk to identify feasible policies, although acting on ideas is another matter.

Rishi Sunak did offer an extra 10,000 visas for seasonal workers next year on top of the 45,000 already available.  It is estimated that £60m of produce remained unpicked last year.

The National Farmers' Union would like a minimum five year rolling scheme.   This would allow greater certainty to plan forward production.

Meat processors have struggled to recruit butchers because of the language requirements posed by immigration rules.  The sector has become reliant on butchers from the Philippines (also a source of labour for the dairy sector) but each work costs £12,000 to bring to the UK.

Defra's digital failures reveal wider problems

A critical House of Commons Public Accounts Committee report on how Defra is struggling to upgrade its ageing IT systems highlights broader problems in the department: https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/39847/documents/194104/default/.

The report notes: 'At the same time as addressing the challenges posed by legacy IT, Defra is undertaking a business transformation process which includes potentially major structural changes to Defra and its arm’s-length bodies. Defra does not currently have a vision of how the transformed Department and its organisations will operate.'

Defra has a reputation as one of Whitehall's weakest departments, in part because of ministerial turnover.  Ambitious ministers use it as a way station while others are put there as a parking spot for those out of favour.   Officials and lobby groups recently told the Financial Times that the department was becoming 'increasingly dysfunctional'.

A National Audit Office report in December found that  'Across government, risks to public services posed by ageing technology have been allowed to build up over many years and Defra has been affected more than most departments. Its systems and services are out of date, creating high risks of operational failure and cyber-attack, inconvenience for service users and additional staff and maintenance costs.' 

The NAO found that Defra did not have a plan for the wider digital transformation that was needed: https://www.nao.org.uk/reports/modernising-ageing-digital-services-defra/

Divergence and Continuity after Brexit

My article with Alan Greer on 'Divergence and Continuity after Brexit in agriculture' in the Journal of European Public Policy is now available online: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13501763.2023.2204118

Throughout British membership of the European Union (EU), agricultural policy was largely determined by the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This was viewed by the UK as a dysfunctional policy and while periodic reforms meant that the EU moved slowly in the direction advocated by the UK, many of the main policy elements remained in place. The devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have always enjoyed a measure of policy freedom in agriculture and have diverged from England in some areas. This article explores the extent of de-Europeanisation in the agricultural sectors in the UK and the patterns of divergence between them, focusing primarily on the development of policies for agricultural support that will replace those in place under the CAP. Overall, there has been substantial divergence in policy, but also areas of continuity, which means that processes of de-Europeanisation in the UK agricultural sectors has been uneven.

UK lacks a strategy for agriculture and climate change

The latest annual report to Parliament of the Committee on Climate Change raises a number of concerns about agricultural policy.  'The UK still lacks a targeted strategy and associated targets for ensuring agriculture remains productive as the climate changes. Indicators to track the exposure and vulnerability of the sector to climate change remain limited. New agricultural policies have been announced, but it remains to be seen how these will impact the climate resilience of agriculture.

Agricultural soils need to be in good condition to support production, particularly under future weather extremes. Sustainable soil management techniques on farms (e.g. reduced tillage, using cover crops and incorporating organic matter to reduce erosion) will help deliver this.

Revisions to agriculture policy must consider and support nature recovery and consider climate risks to delivery. Greater flexibility is needed in the range of activities under agri-environment schemes (e.g. explicit funds for climate-resilient actions) and more funding is needed to ensure agriculture is resilient to climate change.

Significant gaps remain in the suite of indicators required to measure how the productivity of the agriculture sector is changing in relation to climate change. For instance, there is a lack of metrics to robustly assess soil health, on-farm water storage capacity, and losses to livestock/crops due to extreme weather events. It is therefore not possible to conduct a robust, comprehensive assessment of changes in the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change since the last Progress Report.

Distribution of pollinating insects in the UK is declining both in the short and long term. In 2019, the indicator had declined by 21% compared to its value in 1980; between 2014 and 2019 alone the indicator fell 6%.2 Pollinators are vitally important to agriculture as they help many crops reproduce.'

Tories lose farmer support

Farmer support for the Conservatives has fallen below 50 per cent for the first time in living memory.  A survey by Farmers Weekly shows that just 42 per cent would vote Conservative if there was a general election tomorrow.

This compares with 57 per cent who said they would vote Conservative a year ago and 72 per cent in 2020.

Those farmers leaving the Conservatives are split almost equally between Labour and Liberal Democrats, each attracting 23 per cent of the farming vote.

In Scotland 38 per cent backed the Conservatives, followed by the SNP at 30 per cent.   In Wales 44 per cent said they would vote Conservative.   Labour and the Liberal Democrats got 19 per cent each and Plaid Cymru 15 per cent.

Owner occupiers were more strongly Conservative at 56 per cent, but their support among tenant farmers was just 22 per cent.   This group preferred the Liberal Democrats.