War leads to seasonal workers crisis

A government minister caused controversy recently when he suggested that Ukrainians could come to Britain to pick our fruit and vegetables.   However, in reality in recent years Ukrainians have formed a key part of the harvesting force since Brexit.  67 per cent of the almost 30,000 people recruited in 2021 under the seasonal workers' scheme came from the Ukraine.

Seasonal workers became an important part of the farm labour force when East European countries joined the EU.    At the same time fruit farmers were making increase use of polytunnels on farms, allowing more reliable production over a longer season.   These attracted some local criticism in Herefordshire as a blot on the landscape.

Workers were provided with temporary accommodation on the farms.   The better employers arranged courses in English.   There was an incentive to treat workers well as they came back year after year.  Some eventually became supervisors and others decided to stay and became UK residents.

However, as their home economies became more successful, and the rate of the pound against the euro became less favourable, the attractions of doing this demanding physical work in Britain diminished.   I have watched workers in a Norfolk field working behind an automatic harvester on field vegetables and it is back breaking work.

The Government hoped that after Brexit that local workers would fill the gap.   In practice, few were willing to do so and those that did were regarded as less productive than seasonal workers from abroad. Why this was the case is controversial.   The seasonal workers scheme was reintroduced as a pilot in 2019 after being dropped in 2013.

Now Ukrainian males are either fighting the Russians or can't leave the country provoking a recruitment crisis.   One who worked at a Kent grower has been killed.   A lack of visa processing facilities in Kyiv is another factor.   The main harvesting season starts in six weeks.

The estimable Judith Evans wrote a good article on this in the Financial Times yesterday.  Fruit and vegetable growers are now trying to recruit workers from countries such as Morocco and Mongolia.  Tajikstan and the Philppines are also in the frame.

A spokesman for Kent salad grower LJ Betts told the Pink 'Un that he had managed to recruit 38 Romanians  to replace 40 Ukrainians but these workers would require training and would be less productive than experienced workers, pushing up costs.

'Back to the future' risk on food security

It could be 'back to the future' as farm organisations use the war in Ukraine to bang the food security drum.  There are, of course, real issues here, given the importance of Russia and Ukraine in wheat production, but there is a risk of reverting to old fashioned blunt instrument subsidies and downgrading the sustainability agenda.

In particular one could create a false dichotomy between food security and sustainability: https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2022/03/07/Ukraine-war-detonates-EU-food-security-debate-but-will-sustainability-be-collateral-damage#

Farmers may hope for a halt in the phasing out of the basic payment, but the Government faces heavy expenditure pressures with a likelihood of increased defence spending and more support required for household and industrial energy bills.   Rather than providing a general subsidy that is not tied to outcomes, it would be better to spend more on boosting productivity through capital investment and new technology.

I will write more about this issue in the coming days.

Sequestering carbon on farms

There is increasing interest in sequestering carbon on farms as a contribution to combatting climate change and this report reviews the scientific evidence on the various interventions: https://green-alliance.org.uk/The_opportunities_of_agri-carbon_markets_policy_and_practice.php

This report reviews the evidence behind mainly agri-carbon offsetting approaches and ranks 17options against multiple approaches: https://www.gov.uk/flood-and-coastal-erosion-risk-management-research-reports/achieving-net-zero-carbon-emissions-a-review-of-the-evidence-behind-carbon-offsetting

Farmers desert Tories

Farmers are traditionally Conservative supporters, but a poll for Farmers Weekly shows that support has fallen to 57 per cent with farmers complaining that the Government does not understand their needs and problems.   The main beneficiaries are the Liberal Democrats, although only up to 17 per cent, admittedly more than their current national polling level: https://www.fwi.co.uk/news/farm-policy/farmer-support-for-conservatives-on-the-slide-fw-survey-reveals

Historically large scale farmers have been overwhelming Conservative supporters with some holding posts in their constituency associations.   Smaller scale farmers, particularly in remoter areas, have been more inclined to support the Liberal Democrats and the Nationalist parties.

Could this be a factor in the North Shropshire by-election?

New Zealand trade has more political significance

The trade deal with New Zealand concluded after 16 months of negotiations has more political than economic significance, showing that the UK can negotiate post Brexit trade deals quickly.  It is hoped that it will ‘pave the way’ for the UK to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

The deal envisages that tariff-free sheepmeat quotas will grow by 35,000t/year for the first four years (on top of the country’s existing 114,000t WTO quota) and then by 50,000t/year from year’s five to 15. This will give New Zealand a combined tariff-free access of up to 149,000t of sheepmeat in year one, rising to 164,000t in years five to 15 – quantities the country has failed to fulfil in recent times.

For beef, New Zealand currently has just 545t/year of duty-free access to the UK, but the planned deal will see this increase steadily to 38,820t by year 10, and 60,000t by year 15. 

The National Sheep Association argued that in addition to the increase in access by Australia, in just over a decade, these two countries will have access to the UK’s entire volume of lamb consumption.  Despite fears that the red meat market will be hit, Asian markets are a priority for Australia and New Zealand as they are closer and more profitable.

Farmers not ready for withdrawal of support

Some 36 per cent of farm income depends on the Basic Payment Scheme, but one in three farmers are yet to start preparing for its withdrawal according to a survey for Farmers Weekly.   79 per cent of farmers have no clear idea how their farm business will survive without it.   Lowland livestock enterprises are particularly reliant on the basic payment.

Just 15 per cent of farmers say they are interested in taking a lump sum to retire from farming.

53 per cent of farm businesses say they have already diversified.   Of these 51 per cent have a renewable energy scheme, including solar panels (76 per cent), biomass boilers (26 per cent), wind power (22 per cent) and anaerobic digestion (7 per cent).

The next most popular diversification is holiday accommodation (24 per cent), followed by offices and workspace (10 per cent), leisure activities (7 per cent) and farm shops, cafés and restaurants (5 per cent).

Principles that should underpin food policy

Tim Lang and colleagues from the Food Research Collaboration set out nine principles and tests to guide future food policy: https://foodresearch.org.uk/publications/testing-times-for-uk-food-policy-nine-principles-and-tests/

The National Food strategy will be published later this week, and beyond it a White Paper and potentially legislation to implement changes. The latest report from Professors Tim Lang, Erik Millstone and Terry Marsden sets the stage for these post-Brexit developments with nine Principles and Tests that civil society and the public can use to assess whether the important food policy developments that lie ahead serve the public and national interest.