It could be 'back to the future' as farm organisations use the war in Ukraine to bang the food security drum. There are, of course, real issues here, given the importance of Russia and Ukraine in wheat production, but there is a risk of reverting to old fashioned blunt instrument subsidies and downgrading the sustainability agenda.
In particular one could create a false dichotomy between food security and sustainability: https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2022/03/07/Ukraine-war-detonates-EU-food-security-debate-but-will-sustainability-be-collateral-damage#
Farmers may hope for a halt in the phasing out of the basic payment, but the Government faces heavy expenditure pressures with a likelihood of increased defence spending and more support required for household and industrial energy bills. Rather than providing a general subsidy that is not tied to outcomes, it would be better to spend more on boosting productivity through capital investment and new technology.
I will write more about this issue in the coming days.
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