UK lacks a strategy for agriculture and climate change

The latest annual report to Parliament of the Committee on Climate Change raises a number of concerns about agricultural policy.  'The UK still lacks a targeted strategy and associated targets for ensuring agriculture remains productive as the climate changes. Indicators to track the exposure and vulnerability of the sector to climate change remain limited. New agricultural policies have been announced, but it remains to be seen how these will impact the climate resilience of agriculture.

Agricultural soils need to be in good condition to support production, particularly under future weather extremes. Sustainable soil management techniques on farms (e.g. reduced tillage, using cover crops and incorporating organic matter to reduce erosion) will help deliver this.

Revisions to agriculture policy must consider and support nature recovery and consider climate risks to delivery. Greater flexibility is needed in the range of activities under agri-environment schemes (e.g. explicit funds for climate-resilient actions) and more funding is needed to ensure agriculture is resilient to climate change.

Significant gaps remain in the suite of indicators required to measure how the productivity of the agriculture sector is changing in relation to climate change. For instance, there is a lack of metrics to robustly assess soil health, on-farm water storage capacity, and losses to livestock/crops due to extreme weather events. It is therefore not possible to conduct a robust, comprehensive assessment of changes in the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change since the last Progress Report.

Distribution of pollinating insects in the UK is declining both in the short and long term. In 2019, the indicator had declined by 21% compared to its value in 1980; between 2014 and 2019 alone the indicator fell 6%.2 Pollinators are vitally important to agriculture as they help many crops reproduce.'

Tories lose farmer support

Farmer support for the Conservatives has fallen below 50 per cent for the first time in living memory.  A survey by Farmers Weekly shows that just 42 per cent would vote Conservative if there was a general election tomorrow.

This compares with 57 per cent who said they would vote Conservative a year ago and 72 per cent in 2020.

Those farmers leaving the Conservatives are split almost equally between Labour and Liberal Democrats, each attracting 23 per cent of the farming vote.

In Scotland 38 per cent backed the Conservatives, followed by the SNP at 30 per cent.   In Wales 44 per cent said they would vote Conservative.   Labour and the Liberal Democrats got 19 per cent each and Plaid Cymru 15 per cent.

Owner occupiers were more strongly Conservative at 56 per cent, but their support among tenant farmers was just 22 per cent.   This group preferred the Liberal Democrats.

Farmers get wafer thin margins

A report from Sustain argues that margins are wafer thin in the food chain with farmers in particular getting a raw deal despite the fact that they take a big share of the risks: https://www.sustainweb.org/news/nov22-unpicking-food-prices-new/

The report has a number of suggestions for change which it says should not force up prices for consumers, always a big worry for governments.

Defra as a way station

The appointment of Therese Coffey as Defra secretary confirms that the department is a way station for ministers on their way up or on their way out.  Coffey lost her high prestige if somewhat meaningless job as deputy prime minister and, more importantly, the key role of health secretary.

Rishi Sunak wanted to make sure he included some Truss supporters in his government and no one was closer to Truss than Coffey.   The fact that Coffey represents a rural constituency is little consolation.

Some of the crucial decisions will be made elsewhere and not just at the Treasury.   Labour shortages in agriculture create a need for more seasonal visas, but Suella Braverman is unlikely to look on that need favourably given her views on migration.

Defra is something of a peripheral department in government, one of the last to be announced along with the likes of Welsh Secretary.   It lacks the clout it needs for some important tasks.

New government may row back on farm subsidies

The Truss government is reviewing farm policy and may delay the phase out of the domestic version of the CAP Basic Payment due in 2027.

The NFU has been banging the food security drum, but the Government seems to be more concerned about breaches in the blue wall after two rural constituencies were lost to the Liberal Democrats in by-elections.

The Treasury has always been opposed to the extent of farm subsidies, both because of their cost and the weak relationship with desired policy outcomes.   Delaying their phasing out would cost money, but with the Treasury under new management, fiscal prudence has been effectively abandoned by what is a new Government.

The Government is also reviewing plans to make environmental payments for 'public goods' under the ELMS scheme.  The roll out of this has been slow, but farmers taking part in the pilot were angered by a press report that it could be scrapped.

Conservation groups had already made clear their anger at the threat to environmental rules in the investment zones announced in last Friday's 'mini' budget.  The National Trust commented that scrapping environmental payments would 'squander one of the biggest Brexit opportunities for nature.'

Farmers are also concerned that a reversion to payments based on land area rather than public goods would be more vulnerable to being reversed under a future government.

No final decisions have been taken, but kites are being flown.

Energy costs hit food supplies

UK growers are scaling back production in greenhouses as energy costs increase, a pattern that is replicated across Europe.  Crops that require intensive heating in colder climates such as tomatoes, cucumbers and lettuce are the most directly affected.

However, the energy crisis is impacting the EU food supply chain more directly.  Bakers, dairy farmers and other producers, including growers of sugar beet and olives are struggling to pay bills.  The price of inputs such as fertiliser and animal feed has shot up, alongside rising refrigeration and transport costs.

The UK's support plan for small businesses lasts just six months and so far lacks detail.     It is claimed that 75 to 80 per cent of UK salad growers will not plant next year.

In the Netherlands, which accounts for a quarter of world tomato exports, many glasshouses are going dark.  The largest tomato supplier in Sweden and Denmark is also switching off this winter.  Growers in Spain and Morocco may not be able to fill the gap.

In Italy, where growers are already struggling with a drought, it is estimated that a third of farmers are operating at a loss.  Monthly energy bills have typically tripled and fertiliser costs are up fourfold.  Many farmers on fixed contracts are choosing to sell the energy on.

Farmers may increase output of less energy intensive crops such as peppers.

Profiling new Defra minister

The latest Defra secretary has no direct experience of agriculture: https://www.fwi.co.uk/news/farm-policy/ranil-jayawardena-announced-as-new-defra-secretary

The Minister of State does have a farming background: https://www.farminguk.com/news/former-chief-whip-mark-spencer-appointed-defra-farming-minister_61090.html

Eustice hardly impressed despite the farming connections he often referred to, but will this be another case of up or out?