Lessons from the Candian trade deal

The failure of Canadian farmers to reap the benefits they hoped for from the trade deal with the EU could have implications both for any UK post Brexit deal with the EU and for negotiations on trade with the US.

Of course, it is always worth pointing out that the UK and the EU share a common regulatory starting point, making negotiations less complex in principle, although some divergence post Brexit has always been anticipated. That is a source of tension as the EU does not want the UK to be more competitive by substantially changing the regulatory environment.

Canadian agricultural exports to the EU fell 15 per cent in the year 2018. The underlying issue here is that the main market for Canada is the US and therefore Canadian farmers are oriented towards meeting their standards rather than the more stringent ones of the EU. This particularly relates to the banning of antibiotics and growth enhancement technology, both controversial issues with EU consumers.

As Charlie Mitchell notes in an article for the Financial Times livestock farmers must have their methods endorsed by vets certified by the EU and there are not many of them around in beef producing areas in the Canadian west.

Consequently, the Pink 'Un reveals that apparently generous quotas given to Canadian livestock farmers remain unfilled. Canadian pork farmers filled just 1.5 per cent of their quota and cattlemen filled 3.8 per cent of theirs. In contrast, European fine cheese producers had no difficulty filling their quotas with products that doubtless appeal to many Canadian consumers.

German farmers want a soft trade deal

The German Farmers' Association (DBV) are pressing for a generous post Brexit trade deal for the UK: Give UK a good deal

The UK is a key customer for German agriculture, importing €4.5bn of goods a year, while sending just €1.3bn in the other direction. No other country gives Germany such a big surplus in food and drink. Of course, the EU has a trade surplus on goods with the UK, but not on services.

The DBV is concerned that if there is no agreement in place by the end of 2020, the surplus could be halved. Even if there is a mutually beneficial deal, the surplus will fall by one fifth. For analysis by the Johann Heinrich von Thunen Institute of two different scenarios, go here: Implications for the German agro-food sector

Britain imports more than a third of the food and drink it consumes from the EU, more than it buys from the rest of the world put together. Its biggest source is the Netherlands, followed by Germany, Ireland and France.

There is a debate within the Government about whether parallel trade talks should be held with the US, some arguing that this would put pressure on EU negotiators. The US is likely to want looser rules on GM crops and livestock products which could well be controversial.

Veganuary makes headway

Veganuary is a campaign to persuade people to try a vegan lifestyle in January: Veganuary. They state: 'Our vision is simple; we want a vegan world. A world without animal farms and slaughterhouses.' Clearly not good news if you are a livestock farmer.

The campaign is clearly making some headway, although one of the first lessons in a research methods course is that there is a difference between what people say, particularly if it is seen as virtuous, and what they do.

I think that the impact of a 'flexitarian' diet may be greater, i.e., where people cut down, or eliminate, the consumption of red meat for both health and environmental reasons, as well as concerns about animal welfare. Wanting to be healthier appears to be the main reason for giving up animal products (55 per cent), followed by animal welfare concerns (49 per cent) and protecting the environment (30 per cent).

Sales of red meat fell more by value than any other category in supermarkets last year, down by £185m according to Nielsen. Sales of meat-free alternatives rose by 18 per cent to £405m, the highest growth rate of any category. Sales of poultry were up 1.4 per cent and fish 1.2 per cent.

There is, of course, a whole spectrum of choices from being a pescatarian to a vegan, although it is said that vegans particularly have an issue with vegetarians because they do not follow their position to its logical conclusion. However, for some people, becoming vegan may involve a series of transitions.

832,000 people gave up some animal products for the first time in January 2019, according to Kantar research, based on tracking purchases of 30,000 households. Six months later 57 per cent said they still avoided the same products. Of those who had gone back to eating animal products, three quarters said they were eating less than before.

When I went to Marks & Sparks this morning they were heavily promoting plant based products, so clearly retailers see a commercial opportunity and a chance to burnish their green credentials.

The NFU thinks that livestock farmers could export more of what they produce, given that the environmental impact of production systems based on existing grassland was less than than tearing down forests to creating grazing as in Brazil.

The livestock sector is already in economic difficulty and vulnerable to a 'no deal' Brexit. Unfortunately, much of the land on which livestock is reared is not suitable for growing field vegetables or fruit. One issue for fruit and vegetable crops is the availability of environmentally friendly plant protection products based on biology rather than chemistry.

Level funding for farmers

HM Treasury has stated that level funding for farmers in the form of direct payments will be made available in 2020: Support confirmed

Level funding does mean a decline in real terms because of inflation, currently running (CPI) at fractionally over 3 per cent. The basket of goods used by farmers as inputs may differ from the CPI rate and indeed from one farm to another.

The NFU welcomed the statement, but remains concerned about future trade policy and imports: NFU response

Quite what form the new ELMS payments will take remains to be seen. I have heard that at least three versions have been discussed within Defra. The key is to develop a scheme that provides genuine incentives for farmers to engage in environmentally friendly behaviour whilst giving a fair deal for taxpayers.

I am still not convinced that sufficient attention is being paid to climate change, although that was a major deficiency of the CAP where attempts to introduce a climate change pillar were (in my view) defeated by the agri-industry lobby.

Why we need research on vegetables

A celebration of seventy years of crop research at the University of Warwick's Wellesbourne campus: Seventy years

One of the greatest privileges of my academic career was to take part in two projects with scientists at Wellesbourne. I recently completed a book chapter relating to one of them on biopesticides: RELU project

The crops research centre is continuing practical work on biopesticides through the use of levy money: Amber project

As more people become vegetarians or vegans, but, perhaps more importantly, others reduce their meat consumption, the research done at Wellesbourne is more important than ever.

High performance will help farms survive Brexit

Strutt and Parker look at the effects of a no deal Brexit on agriculture: No Deal impact

They argue, 'The best insurance for a farm business remains to be as high performing as possible. Top-performing farms (in terms of the ratio of what they produce compared with the inputs needed to produce it) are in a far stronger position to cope with the changes.'

Another paper looks at the effect of changes in the funding of farm support: Funding gap

The paper argues, 'The changes will most affect farms that are highly reliant on Basic Payments - cereals, mixed and lowland livestock farms. Sectors like dairy will be less affected.'

They advise, 'Farm as efficiently as possible; the top 25% businesses are less reliant on direct payments and more resilient to volatility. Farmers should continue to look for ways to improve their farming systems, in terms of outputs and markets for their products, variable and fixed costs.'

Post Brexit tariff regime angers farmers

The NFU is annoyed about the removal of tariff safeguards for a number of agricultural sectors in the event of a no deal Brexit: Tariff review

Government policy appears to be driven by a desire to keep food prices low. Minette Batters, NFU president, said that the Government had 'betrayed' the industry.