Weather in Southern Europe could push up food prices

Looking across the valley from my family member's farm in Spain towards a distant urbanization.  Almonds and oranges are mainly grown in this part of the valley, but grapes are grown nearby.

Voters and consumers particularly react to food price inflation which has remained relatively high.  I certainly notice it on my trips to the supermarket and I am not a poorer consumer.   The least well off spend a great portion of their budgets on food and often have to rely on food banks.

One of my children has a small retirement farm in Spain and tells me that January has been unusually cold and wet, albeit that has replenished their water source.   The almond trees do seem to have blossomed more or less on schedule.

A lot of big fruit and vegetable producers in the UK decamp to Spain for the winter.   The carbon footprint of growing tomatoes under heated glass is greater.

A wave of extreme rain and flooding across the Mediterranean countries and north Africa has battered the winter growing regions that feed Europe, disrupting supplies of fruit and vegetables and threatening food price rises. Spain, Portugal, Morocco and parts of Italy and Greece function as Europe’s winter “pantry”, exporting tomatoes, cucumbers, avocados, peppers, berries and citrus fruit northwards when domestic output is limited.

But extensive damage to crops and infrastructure in recent weeks could quickly ripple through wholesale markets and supermarket supply chains, warn economists. “When you have the types of floods that we’re seeing in Europe and north Africa, combined also with the very wet winter here in the UK . . . there’s no way around it: we’ll see the pressure on vegetable and fruit prices,” David Barmes, policy fellow at the London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Transition Expertise told the Financial Times.

Spain, which recorded its wettest January in 25 years, has already recorded damage to 22,000 hectares of agricultural land, according to insurance association Agroseguro. Luis Planas, Spain’s agriculture minister, told the Pink ‘Un that the affected area could “nearly double” once assessments were complete. The ruin extends beyond crops to irrigation systems, farm machinery and rural roads, complicating harvesting and distribution even where produce survives.

The concentration of European winter fruit and vegetable supply in a handful of regions makes markets particularly sensitive to weather shocks. In January last year, Spain accounted for more than 70 per cent of UK sweet pepper imports and 65 per cent of cucumbers, while Morocco supplied more than a third of British strawberry and raspberry imports, according to UK trade data.

“The biggest, probably most proximate impact [from the recent weather] is the impact on fresh produce from Spain and Morocco,” Tom Lancaster at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, a UK-based think-tank told the FT. “If supply tightens, buyers may find themselves competing for smaller volumes,” he said. “You might also see an impact on quality: fruit damaged by heavy rain doesn’t travel or store as well.”

The Netherlands imports 35-40 per cent of its fresh vegetables from Spain, Morocco and Portugal, which together also provide 15-20 per cent of its fresh fruit imports during January and February, according to ING.    (Perhaps that explains why there are so many Dutch expats in my daughter’s area of Spain, indeed my great-granddaughter has a decent command of Dutch).

 In Andalusia, one of Spain’s main agricultural regions, farmers’ association Asaja estimates that 20 per cent of all production has been lost. In one province alone, Córdoba, Asaja said losses totalled €700mn, with olive groves accounting for €550mn of that sum and further damage to cereals and citrus. Last week Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s controversial prime minister, visited the storm-hit town of Huétor Tájar, west of Granada, where the mayor explained that 80 per cent of its population depended directly or indirectly on the region’s asparagus production. With harvesting due to begin within weeks, mayor Fernando Delgado said that as much as a third of the crop remained underwater.

The adverse weather across Andalusia and other major growing regions in southern Europe meant “prices would be higher year on year”, Thijs Geijer, a senior economist covering food and agriculture at ING told the leading economics and business paper, adding that consumers would see fewer discounts. But he noted that the effect on inflation data could be muted in the Netherlands, where the affected products carry little weight in the consumer price index.

Barmes told the FT that the latest storms were part of a wider pattern of climate shocks feeding into food price inflation. His recent research has shown that the gap between UK and euro area food inflation in recent months was largely driven by a small number of climate‑sensitive items — including chocolate and olive oil — some of which carry a much heavier weight in the UK shopping basket, leaving British consumers more affected when extreme weather hits.

“To me, there’s little doubt that we’ll see pressure on food prices later in the year, even if some of it will be more short term,” he told the FT. “It’s very difficult to substitute away from Spain and Morocco in particular for certain parts of the winter vegetable basket, so I think we’ll see that [impact] quite soon, and then later, we’ll probably see effects also on fruit, and then also on meat and dairy . . . and olive oil.”

Central banks have begun acknowledging the influence of extreme weather on inflation dynamics. In its August 2025 monetary policy report, the Bank of England noted that climate-linked disruptions were contributing to higher UK food prices and complicating efforts to return inflation to its 2 per cent target. Governments have pledged support for affected farmers through insurance payouts and EU crisis reserve funds linked to the bloc’s Common Agricultural Policy.

Spain has vowed to give farmers €2.2bn in direct aid and spend €600mn on rebuilding infrastructure.  But economists say the broader concern is structural. “I think we’re really seeing that this is not a one-off,” said Barmes. “These types of climate-related supply disruptions are becoming more frequent, severe, and geographically widespread.”

Weather adds to worries of British beef farmers

The only thing saving UK beef production from collapse os that an increasing proportion of calves born to dairy cows are being reared for beef.  Although generally inferior in taste, it is cheaper to produce as it uses calves that are effectively a by-product of milk production.   But even these calves ae increasing in number as the dairy herd shrinks.  More milk is being produced per ciow because of improved genetics.

British beef consumption per capita is in steady decline but beef imports forecast tt increase in the medium term.  British beef farmers face a double blow from the changing climate as relentless rain forces them to keep cows indoors, after last summer’s drought stopped them storing away enough hay for the winter. This year’s rain has left grazing fields waterlogged and cattle stuck indoors, with insufficient hay to munch on because last summer was unusually dry — adding to the pressure on farmers also dealing with lower subsidies and volatile energy and feed prices.

 If the rain persists it could eventually put upward pressure on beef prices — which rose 28 per cent last year — alongside global factors such as shrinking herds and growing demand. The rain has blown a hole in farmers’ planning because they would normally only bring cattle inside for four to five months over winter, for which they would buy enough feed.

As little as two or three extra weeks indoors is a significant extra cost. Lucy Eyre, a beef and sheep farmer in Wales,told the Financial Times that British producers have had the “worst of both worlds” with “very poor” yields of silage, a feed made from hay, because of the dry summer.

And now turning cattle out too early is risky: on saturated ground they “make a mess” and “the grass won’t do as well later”. “Having to house livestock for two to three weeks longer might be the difference between making a loss and breaking even for many farmers,” Eyre told the Pink ‘Un.

The episode shows how the changing climate can weigh on farmers’ profits and eventually feed through to diets and consumer wallets. Food price inflation has proved stubborn in the UK, and rising grocery bills remain politically charged. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose about 4.5 per cent in the year to December 2025 — an acceleration on the previous month, even as overall inflation eased.

David Swales, the interim chief economist of the UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, told the leading business paper that tight supplies of beef globally, including a declining herd size in the UK, had pushed up prices, but the bad weather could exacerbate the problem. “It’s been very wet the last two months — if it carries on as wet as this, it could be very disruptive, and it could add a lot to farmers’ cost of production in the year ahead,” he said. “And this could mean further down the line that food prices have to rise.”

While the weather in Britain would not have an impact on the global market, not all beef is easily swapped for imports. Swales said “100 per cent British” pledges by supermarkets and restaurant chains such as McDonald’s meant their prices were more likely to be affected by the weather.

The AHDB said UK beef production in 2025 was 3.5 per cent lower than the year before due to shrinking cattle herds. It expects production to fall again in 2026 and close 1.3 per cent lower than 2025.  David Barton, chair of the National Farmers’ Union Livestock Board, said wet weather “shouldn’t have much impact on beef supply . . . So long as we have good weather late March into April all should be fine.” He argued that global supply and demand imbalances were causing price rises.

Cattle numbers have been falling in Britain and abroad. In the US, drought across key cattle states has led to herds falling to their lowest levels in decades, driving up prices. Imports to the UK also fell last year, down 3 per cent year on year due to tight supply in Ireland, which accounted for 62 per cent of all beef imports last year.

Irish producers have been losing share of the UK market to cheaper suppliers from Brazil, Australia and New Zealand. But greater imports could also have an impact on the national diet. “There’s two different kinds of beef,” said Tim Hayward, author of Steak: The Whole Story and an FT columnist. “There’s the stuff that runs to the American standards, which is grown now pretty much all over the world, with restricted roaming and feeding on corn, and that gives you fat, soft beef, very, very quickly.” And then there is beef grown in the UK: “We tend to grass finish our animals over here . . . If there is a reduction in the UK herd, and we’re doing more importation, it would be more importation of the crap beef.”

Farmers line up behind Farage

Why I am not surprised that 40 per cent of farmers say they would vote for Reform if an election was held tomorrow?   Owner occupier farmers have always been on the right politically, many of them holding posts in local Conservative associations.   However, they have become disillusioned with the Tories, although in a real general election I am sure that many of them would drift back.

In the 2024 general election, Farmers Weekly data shows that 57 voted Conservative and 15 per cent Reform.  Labour support today stands at just one per cent.

Reform support was strongest in the Midlands (52 per cent) and lowest in Scotland (31 per cent).  In Wales 22 per cent of farmers said they would vote for Plaid Cymru, but Reform would attract 35 per cent.  Just nine per cent of Scottish farmers would back the SNP, behind the Liberal Democrats on 13 per cent.

The Lib Dems did best in the South East and their traditional stronghold of the South West,

Despite the IHT controversy, only 35 per cent of farmers have a robust succession plan.   This is a worrying feature of an industry where those who are 80+ think they know best