Yields from farm inheritance tax changes uncertain

The Office for Budget Responsibility has brought out a short report on the proposed changes in inheritance tax for farmers and in Business Property Relief: https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/IHT-APR-and-BPR-supplementary-release-Jan-2025.pdf

It is necessarily a very technical report, but the main takeaway seems to be the uncertainty associated with the revenue yields which are the stated main objective of the policy.  In other words, the political cost may outweigh the financial gain.   Some would argue that changing the rollover relief for selling land for development would yield more revenue and cause less pain.

Meanwhile a number of major supermarkets, most recently Tesco and Lidl, have declared their opposition to the proposed reforms.  Of course, words are cheap and major supermarkets have been squeezing farmers margins (or worse) for years.

Farmers are notoriously slow in many cases to put succession plans in place, but could be allowed more time to do so, while the precise calculation of the threshold for liability is complex but needs further examination.

Most farmers voted Tory in 2024

After many declaring that they were fed up with the Conservatives, the majority of farmers stayed close to their traditional allegiance and voted for the Tories after all, according to a survey conducted by Farmers Weekly.  (N = 767, 'strong spread by region and farm type', but owner-occupiers may be over represented. Self-selected sample).

Prospective voting surveys showed farmer support for the Conservatives decline from 72 per cent in 2020 to just over 40 per cent in 2024 before the general election.

In the event 57 per cent voted Conservative, while 15 per cent opted for Reform.   Despite the success of the Liberal Democrats in rural constituencies, only 8 per cent voted for them.  4 per cent voted for other (probably mainly the Plaid and the Scottish Nationalists).   Just 4 per cent voted for Labour with the balance made up by non voters and 'prefer not to say'.