Farming tax targets for the Chancellor

Agricultural tax breaks are likely to be a target for Rachel Reeves as she looks for new sources of tax revenue that do not break Labour's election pledges.

First in the queue is agricultural property relief which allows owners of farms to pass on the assets in their totality free of inheritance tax during their lifetimes or in their wills.

The rationale was that it allowed succession on working farms which would otherwise be prevented by a substantial tax burden.  In practice it has encouraged wealthy individuals from outside agriculture to buy up farmland as there is no upper limit on APR (think Dyson).  

The tax relief has pushed up the price of farmland and has thus made it more difficult for new entrants to come into the sector, compounded by the reduction in local authority tenancies which offered a first step on the ladder.

However, even if APR were abolished or capped, most farmland would still qualify for business relief on inheritance tax.

What could be abolished is rollover relief on capital gains tax.   If a farmer sells land for development, it can be 'rolled over' into the purchase of farmland without attracting capital gains tax.

Given that Reeves is thought likely to increase fuel duty, albeit probably only marginally, 'red' diesel tax relief for farmers becomes even more valuable.   However, given rising input prices, uncertain harvests and volatile output prices affecting cash flow, this is likely to be left alone.

Plenty of holes in Defra Farming and Countryside plans

The National Audit Office has reviewed Defra's Farming and Countryside programme and has a number of criticisms to make.   

The Farming and Countryside Programme aims to fundamentally change England’s farms. The stakes are high for the environment, food production and the viability of the sector. To achieve the Programme’s objectives, many farmers need to transform the way they farm, and Defra’s modelling shows the extent of productivity improvements that are needed for farm businesses to maintain viability.

Take-up of schemes is rapidly increasing, but some of what Defra is paying for now are actions that, for many farmers, do not result in significant immediate change to farming practices. Instead, they are expected to encourage farmers to do more for the environment in the long-term.

Defra expects the removal of direct payments to stimulate most of the required productivity improvements. It says it has seen some improvements already as farmers adapt to life without direct payments, but the evidence is inconclusive on whether the scale of change needed will be achieved.

Farmers need quality advice and support to adapt, but Defra has not yet ensured that they can access what they need. Around half of England’s farmers say they are not at all positive about their future in farming.

The Programme will continue to change, but Defra has not yet provided a long-term view of how it expects the Programme to develop, for example, in terms of the balance of funding between SFI and more ambitious schemes.

Defra’s iterative approach to Programme design makes it difficult for farmers to plan their businesses to remain viable, to continue to produce the food we need and to achieve the Programme’s environmental objectives. Currently, gaps in the Programme’s data on environmental outcomes is limiting Defra’s ability to fully understand the impact on the environment, or whether it is on track to achieve value for money.

Full report here: https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/farming-and-countryside-programme-1.pdf

Food security for some

The UK Government has produced its new food security index using nine indicators which it claims paint a 'broadly stable' picture: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-food-security-index-2024/uk-food-security-index-2024

Writing in the Financial Times today, Professor Tim Lang says that the indicators 'ignored internationally agreed definitions and indices of food security.'  He points out that food prices are 25 per cent higher than a few years ago and that a Food Standards Agency classified 25 per cent of consumers as food insecure. Poor diets feed through to healthcare costs.

No longer a single farming voice

Some interesting reflections by the president of the UK Agricultural Economics Society on recent farmer protests in Europe: 'The response to the grievances has been a mix of grant concessions and delayed policy decisions, reinforcing the argument that the farm lobby has a political importance which vastly outweighs its significance in terms of standard economic indicators.'

'Within the UK, I have found the diversity of reactions to the demonstrations from within the farming community interesting. Increasingly there no longer seems to be a single farming voice. Instead, just as the priorities that the sector is asked to address have widened so too has the range of interest groups with debate intensifying. For example, behind the headlines, positions of the more traditional farm lobby groups have been challenged on social media platforms by farmer-led groups concerned with soil health, food sovereignty, and diversity in the farming community, and through debates on the relative importance of food and environment in agricultural policy and practice.'

'The Oxford Real Farming Conference from 2010 was perhaps an early indication of this trend and the growing success of the Groundswell Agriculture Festival focus on regenerative farming systems. Agricultural economists have long recognised different motivations and styles of farming (see Hill, B. and Bradley, D., Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2024. Goals and values of farmers revisited: Gasson fifty years on). It seems more important than ever that we understand and recognise changes occurring in agriculture’s political economy if we are to fully support the transitions required in the sector to address climate and biodiversity crises.'

The collapse of the green wall

My article is now available on the Political Quarterly website.

The Conservative Party has usually done well in rural areas, but its ‘green wall’ is now under threat from Labour more than the Liberal Democrats. Farmers did not support Brexit any more than the general population, and in income terms they are currently doing well, but fear for the future. In addition, food security issues are more complex than they are portrayed, as are the relations with the devolved governments. In Scotland, the government there is much more popular among Scottish farmers whilst the government in Wales is doing much worse among farming communities.

Why some dairy farms do better than others

Britain has a long-running productivity problem and that includes agriculture.   What is also the case both generally and in agriculture is that there is considerable variability in performance, something confirmed for the dairy sector by farm business consultant Andersons: https://ahdb.org.uk/knowledge-library/characteristics-of-top-performing-farms-2024

The top 25 per cent of dairy farms typically make about £120,000 more a year profit than the bottom 50 per cent.  The top farms obtained an average milk price 1.7p a litre higher than bottom producers.

Top farms were more successful because of factors such as relentless cost control, efficient stocking rates, knowing what the market requires and producing it, and keeping a close eye on detail.

Quarter of farmers say they will not vote

Almost one in four farmers say they will not vote at the next general election according to a Farmers Weekly survey. (N stated as 600+).

42 per cent would vote Conservative, down from 39 per cent last year with 10 per cent voting Liberal Democrat and 7 per cent Labour.  'Others' account for 20 per cent.   This is a disappointing figure for the Liberal Democrats given their hopes of making progress in rural seats.

Support for the Conservatives was strongest in south-east England (49 per cent) and Yorkshire (47 per cent).  Support was stronger among larger farmers with 51 per cent of those farming more than 500 hectares saying they would vote Conservative.

21 per cent in Scotland and 29 per cent in Wales would vote Conservative.   In Scotland Labour was the most popular party with the Scottish Nationalists in third place with nine per cent.

The NFU have just demanded that the farm budget be expanded from £2.4bn to £4bn, something that either leading party is unlikely to be able to afford given the fiscal outlook.