Regrets? I have a few.

The voting behaviour of UK farmers in the Brexit referendum mirrored that of the population as a whole, but quite a few are now regretting their choice according to a Farmers' Weekly survey of 950 farmers and those in ancillary industries. 

Three-quarters of respondents said that Brexit had been negative for the UK economy and 69 per cent said that it had been very or fairly negative for their own businesses.   If the vote could be held again, there would be an eight per cent swing from leave to remain.   65 per cent said that it made it less likely they would vote Conservative.

Both arable and livestock farmers seemed equally disappointed   Even more negative were those growing vegetables (81 per cent) or keeping pigs  (79 per cent).

A clear majority said that despite pre-Brexit promises of 'a bonfire of red tape' once Britain left the EU, the reverse had been true.   My talks to farmers around the north of England convinced me that some had a very surprising view of the regulations that could be discarded.

The phasing out of the Basic Payment Scheme in England attracted a lot of criticism, it being claimed that farming could not survive without support.    Arguably this shows an industry that had become too reliant on subsidies not tied to outcomes.

Two-thirds of those surveyed thought that the UK was better off when the EU devised policy, ironically a view strongest among those growing non-supported crops such as potatoes, sugar beet and fruit.

Rural voters move away from Conservatives

Never mind the blue wall and the red wall.  Is the Conservative 'green wall' collapsing?

A survey of over 1,000 in England's 100 most rural constituencies for the Country Land and Business Association revealed a 18 per cent swing away from the Conservatives and a 16 per cent boost for Labour compared with the 2019 general election.   The Liberal Democrats won just 13 per cent of the support of those polled.

If replicated in 2024 20 of the most 96 rural seats held by the Conservatives would change hands.    Among the most vulnerable are Defra farming minister Mark Spencer (Sherwood); Jacob Rees-Mogg (North East Somerset); Liam Fox (North Somerset); and Jeremy Hunt (South West Surrey).

More here: https://www.cla.org.uk/news/rural-wall-collapsing-as-conservative-support-in-rural-england-falls-by-18-points/

How has UK agricultural policy changed since Brexit?

Some thoughts here: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2023/05/24/how-has-uk-agricultural-policy-changed-since-brexit/

Farm policies a Brexit success?

Responding to Nigel Farage, Downing Street yesterday said that Brexit has been a success, citing the ability of the UK to shape its own farm policies as a benefit.

Really?  A hollowed out Defra has found this a challenging task.   The new policies have been rolled out slowly.  The ELMS scheme is complicated and the relationship between policy instruments and desired outcomes is uncertain, albeit that is not an unfamiliar problem.  Measures to tackle the farm productivity problem are limited in scope and funding.

Downing Street also held its much vaunted food summit yesterday.   The farming press dismissed it as a 'talking shop' and admittedly my heart sinks when I hear the phrase 'breakout groups'.  All too often this means poorly focused discussions and brief feedbacks lacking clarity.   However, one needs to talk to identify feasible policies, although acting on ideas is another matter.

Rishi Sunak did offer an extra 10,000 visas for seasonal workers next year on top of the 45,000 already available.  It is estimated that £60m of produce remained unpicked last year.

The National Farmers' Union would like a minimum five year rolling scheme.   This would allow greater certainty to plan forward production.

Meat processors have struggled to recruit butchers because of the language requirements posed by immigration rules.  The sector has become reliant on butchers from the Philippines (also a source of labour for the dairy sector) but each work costs £12,000 to bring to the UK.

Defra's digital failures reveal wider problems

A critical House of Commons Public Accounts Committee report on how Defra is struggling to upgrade its ageing IT systems highlights broader problems in the department: https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/39847/documents/194104/default/.

The report notes: 'At the same time as addressing the challenges posed by legacy IT, Defra is undertaking a business transformation process which includes potentially major structural changes to Defra and its arm’s-length bodies. Defra does not currently have a vision of how the transformed Department and its organisations will operate.'

Defra has a reputation as one of Whitehall's weakest departments, in part because of ministerial turnover.  Ambitious ministers use it as a way station while others are put there as a parking spot for those out of favour.   Officials and lobby groups recently told the Financial Times that the department was becoming 'increasingly dysfunctional'.

A National Audit Office report in December found that  'Across government, risks to public services posed by ageing technology have been allowed to build up over many years and Defra has been affected more than most departments. Its systems and services are out of date, creating high risks of operational failure and cyber-attack, inconvenience for service users and additional staff and maintenance costs.' 

The NAO found that Defra did not have a plan for the wider digital transformation that was needed: https://www.nao.org.uk/reports/modernising-ageing-digital-services-defra/

Divergence and Continuity after Brexit

My article with Alan Greer on 'Divergence and Continuity after Brexit in agriculture' in the Journal of European Public Policy is now available online: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13501763.2023.2204118

Throughout British membership of the European Union (EU), agricultural policy was largely determined by the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This was viewed by the UK as a dysfunctional policy and while periodic reforms meant that the EU moved slowly in the direction advocated by the UK, many of the main policy elements remained in place. The devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have always enjoyed a measure of policy freedom in agriculture and have diverged from England in some areas. This article explores the extent of de-Europeanisation in the agricultural sectors in the UK and the patterns of divergence between them, focusing primarily on the development of policies for agricultural support that will replace those in place under the CAP. Overall, there has been substantial divergence in policy, but also areas of continuity, which means that processes of de-Europeanisation in the UK agricultural sectors has been uneven.

UK lacks a strategy for agriculture and climate change

The latest annual report to Parliament of the Committee on Climate Change raises a number of concerns about agricultural policy.  'The UK still lacks a targeted strategy and associated targets for ensuring agriculture remains productive as the climate changes. Indicators to track the exposure and vulnerability of the sector to climate change remain limited. New agricultural policies have been announced, but it remains to be seen how these will impact the climate resilience of agriculture.

Agricultural soils need to be in good condition to support production, particularly under future weather extremes. Sustainable soil management techniques on farms (e.g. reduced tillage, using cover crops and incorporating organic matter to reduce erosion) will help deliver this.

Revisions to agriculture policy must consider and support nature recovery and consider climate risks to delivery. Greater flexibility is needed in the range of activities under agri-environment schemes (e.g. explicit funds for climate-resilient actions) and more funding is needed to ensure agriculture is resilient to climate change.

Significant gaps remain in the suite of indicators required to measure how the productivity of the agriculture sector is changing in relation to climate change. For instance, there is a lack of metrics to robustly assess soil health, on-farm water storage capacity, and losses to livestock/crops due to extreme weather events. It is therefore not possible to conduct a robust, comprehensive assessment of changes in the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change since the last Progress Report.

Distribution of pollinating insects in the UK is declining both in the short and long term. In 2019, the indicator had declined by 21% compared to its value in 1980; between 2014 and 2019 alone the indicator fell 6%.2 Pollinators are vitally important to agriculture as they help many crops reproduce.'