The only thing saving UK beef production from collapse os that an increasing proportion of calves born to dairy cows are being reared for beef. Although generally inferior in taste, it is cheaper to produce as it uses calves that are effectively a by-product of milk production. But even these calves ae increasing in number as the dairy herd shrinks. More milk is being produced per ciow because of improved genetics.
British beef consumption per capita is in steady decline but
beef imports forecast tt increase in the medium term. British beef farmers face a double blow from
the changing climate as relentless rain forces them to keep cows indoors, after
last summer’s drought stopped them storing away enough hay for the winter. This
year’s rain has left grazing fields waterlogged and cattle stuck indoors, with
insufficient hay to munch on because last summer was unusually dry — adding to
the pressure on farmers also dealing with lower subsidies and volatile energy
and feed prices.
If the rain persists
it could eventually put upward pressure on beef prices — which rose 28 per cent
last year — alongside global factors such as shrinking herds and growing
demand. The rain has blown a hole in farmers’ planning because they would
normally only bring cattle inside for four to five months over winter, for
which they would buy enough feed.
As little as two or three extra weeks indoors is a significant
extra cost. Lucy Eyre, a beef and sheep farmer in Wales,told the Financial
Times that British producers have had the “worst of both worlds” with “very
poor” yields of silage, a feed made from hay, because of the dry summer.
And now turning cattle out too early is risky: on saturated
ground they “make a mess” and “the grass won’t do as well later”. “Having to
house livestock for two to three weeks longer might be the difference between
making a loss and breaking even for many farmers,” Eyre told the Pink ‘Un.
The episode shows how the changing climate can weigh on
farmers’ profits and eventually feed through to diets and consumer wallets.
Food price inflation has proved stubborn in the UK, and rising grocery bills
remain politically charged. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose about
4.5 per cent in the year to December 2025 — an acceleration on the previous
month, even as overall inflation eased.
David Swales, the interim chief economist of the UK
Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, told the leading business paper
that tight supplies of beef globally, including a declining herd size in the
UK, had pushed up prices, but the bad weather could exacerbate the problem.
“It’s been very wet the last two months — if it carries on as wet as this, it
could be very disruptive, and it could add a lot to farmers’ cost of production
in the year ahead,” he said. “And this could mean further down the line that
food prices have to rise.”
While the weather in Britain would not have an impact on the
global market, not all beef is easily swapped for imports. Swales said “100 per
cent British” pledges by supermarkets and restaurant chains such as McDonald’s
meant their prices were more likely to be affected by the weather.
The AHDB said UK beef production in 2025 was 3.5 per cent
lower than the year before due to shrinking cattle herds. It expects production
to fall again in 2026 and close 1.3 per cent lower than 2025. David
Barton, chair of the National Farmers’ Union Livestock Board, said wet
weather “shouldn’t have much impact on beef supply . . . So long as we
have good weather late March into April all should be fine.” He argued that
global supply and demand imbalances were causing price rises.
Cattle numbers have been falling in Britain and abroad. In
the US, drought across key cattle states has led to herds falling to their
lowest levels in decades, driving up prices. Imports to the UK also fell last
year, down 3 per cent year on year due to tight supply in Ireland, which
accounted for 62 per cent of all beef imports last year.
Irish producers have been losing share of the UK market
to cheaper suppliers from Brazil, Australia and New Zealand. But greater
imports could also have an impact on the national diet. “There’s two different
kinds of beef,” said Tim Hayward, author of Steak: The Whole Story and an FT
columnist. “There’s the stuff that runs to the American standards, which is
grown now pretty much all over the world, with restricted roaming and feeding
on corn, and that gives you fat, soft beef, very, very quickly.” And then there
is beef grown in the UK: “We tend to grass finish our animals over
here . . . If there is a reduction in the UK herd, and we’re doing more
importation, it would be more importation of the crap beef.”
