Economist Sean Rickard has warned that one in three farms could be driven out of business in five years in the event of a no deal Brexit. Those most at risk were smaller, full time producers.
One has to be careful about the distinction between farmers and farms going out of business. Some farmers could switch to part-time farming by taking on off farm work, although the way in which they farmed might change.
Other farmers might decide to leave farming. Their farms might be taken on by new entrants or absorbed into larger existing farms.
Individual farmer decisions will be influenced by such factors as their debt load and whether they have a successor. However, there is a case for enhancing early retirement schemes for an ageing farmer population.
Replacing older farmers by younger ones could boost innovation and productivity.
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