This summer's harvest in the UK has been hit by poor weather. After a sodden autumn, a winter that was warm and wet and an exceptionally dry spring the recent period has seen a mini heat wave which stopped any more growth. This was then followed by torrential rain which flooded fields and flattened crops. It is also needs to be borne in mind that there was a reduced planting area last autumn.
The NFU has claimed that it will be the worst harvest in 30 years. The ADHB were more optimistic, forecasting an average decline in yields of 10 per cent. In any event it looks like the UK will be a net importer of wheat, around four million tonnes. Wheat production is expected to be below 10 million tonnes, well below the five year average of 15 million tonnes.
Farmers will not be compensated for lower yields by higher prices as there are plentiful supplies of wheat and maize elsewhere. There have been strong yields in Russia's central and Volga regions.
As weather conditions become hotter and wetter in response to climate change, farmers are turning to alternative crops such as soya and maize. Soya is a legume native to south-east Asia. It is mostly used as an animal feed. Rising meat consumption by the Chinese middle class has driven up its use. China imports 105 million tonnes of soya a year.
Some 5,500 acres are currently being cultivated by around 150 farms and that is expected to increase to 10,000 acres next year. It is open to question whether there are varieties that will do sufficiently well in the UK climate.
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